Iran and its dissidents – what comes next?

Given the current prospect of incidental regime change in Iran, we explore the landscape of Iranian dissidents and ask – what may come next? Ayatollah Khamenei has been the Supreme Leader of the Iranian regime since 1989. As a result of Israel’s ‘Operation Rising Lion’ which includes targeted elimination of the Iranian regime’s military leadership and nuclear infrastructure, the once-distant prospect of regime change could be only a matter of time away. Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton has noted that the death of Khamenei would leave the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Ayatollah’s extrajudicial armed force, weakened and vulnerable. As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, US President Donald Trump has made clear that, although not an immediate target, he has intelligence surrounding Ayatollah Khamenei’s whereabouts. 

Worst Case Scenario  

If Ayatollah Khamenei were to be assassinated or suddenly removed, it is plausible that the IRGC, rather than democratic forces, would move swiftly to consolidate power. The IRGC are a military force, separate from the Iranian army, with the responsibility of strengthening the interests of the regime, as opposed to the country. Following the 1979 revolution, the IRGC has entrenched itself as a dominant force capable of wielding immense influence over Iran’s military, politics and economy.  While it may lack immediate constitutional legitimacy, the chaos of an ongoing war with Israel, could provide the pretext for the IRGC to instate martial law. This could allow the IRGC to bypass constitutional protocol entirely, installing a Supreme Leader loyal to its command. This military-led succession would almost certainly lead to the re-establishment, if not strengthening, of theocratic and anti-western governance. The IRGC poses not only a threat to the Iranian people but also to the UK and wider Western values. Ken McCallum, the director-general of MI5, highlighted how 20 foiled IRGC plots in the UK (since 2022) are evidence of a lethal threat to British citizens. 

An important consideration is how the IRGC may balance their more ambitious aims – such as “death to America” and their nuclear capability - against their consolidation of power, post Khamenei. David Frum has drawn a comparison to post-Castro Cuba, where the regime reeled in its revolutionary aspects by being less aggressive toward its adversaries, in order to retain power. The theocratic religious element would complicate this approach for the IRGC, as its religious and revolutionary aims come into conflict with its strategic interests. Furthermore, although this approach may shield the IRGC from external interference, from western powers, it may do little to suppress the growing Iranian discontent towards theocratic, Islamic rule.     

Reza Pahlavi 

Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (the last Shah of Iran), is one of the most prominent figures calling for regime change. Following the revolution the royal family were forced into exile due to their pro-western attitudes. Reza Pahlavi, despite holding no official role in Iran, has established a strong symbolic presence among the Iranian diaspora and those who pursue freedom from Khamenei's oppressive regime. He has frequently pressed for a free and secular democracy in Iran. Most recently, he has called for a “nationwide uprising” declaring now the optimal time to increase pressure on the regime. Reza has reassured the Iranian people that opposition forces, comprised of the Iranian diaspora and local monarchists, have a 100 day transition plan, to ensure Iran will not descend into civil war or instability and to enact a “national and democratic government for the Iranian people, by the Iranian people.” Reza’s proposal for a secular democracy is popular. In 2022, the Tony Blair Institute found that the anti-regime protest movement in Iran is fundamentally secular. Among Iranians who want regime change, 76 per cent also consider religion unimportant in their lives.   

Anti-monarchist critics argue that Reza’s royalist branding lacks the authority to install long term democratic governance. Reza, speaking on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, stated that he personally favors a republic, for its meritocratic nature. Reza is the opposition representative with the strongest ties to the U.S. and Israel. This alignment of strategic interests posits Reza Pahlavi as a strong candidate to replace the Iranian regime, despite questions surrounding the strength of his grassroots support in Iran.  

Alternatives 

Another alternative for a secular democratic Iran, without monarchist elements, is represented by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). The council, founded in Tehran in 1981, advocates for the overthrow of the religious dictatorship and promotes a free and democratic Iran. Maryam Rajavi is the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, until a time when the power can be transferred to the people. In 2006, Maryam unveiled her 10-point plan for the future of Iran, focused on a “pluralistic republic based on the separation of religion and state, gender equality, the abolition of the death penalty, peace, coexistence, the elimination of double oppression against Iran’s ethnic and national minorities, and a non-nuclear Iran.” In June 2025, in front of the EU Parliament, Maryam advocated for the “Third Option” , a solution which rejects the authority of the clerical regime as well as foreign military intervention. Instead, she advocated for the EU to enable the people of Iran to lead the Iranian resistance for democratic change.   

A principal member of the NCRI is the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK), a leftist militant group that carried out bombings against the Shah’s government and US targets in the 1970s.  Opposition towards the MEK largely stems from its decision to side with Saddam Hussein, during the Iraq war. Maryam Rajavi serves as co-leader of the MEK alongside her husband, Massoud Rajavi, who has been missing and presumed dead in exile for over two decades. In the 2000s, the MEK renounced its violent past and began efforts to improve its image in the West. The NCRI is part of this rebranding, presenting a more politically palatable front for the MEK’s goal of regime change in Iran. Despite rebranding efforts, the MEK remains unpopular within Iran due to its former support for Saddam Hussein and perceived Marxist, extremist elements.    

The Green Movement, previously led by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, was the largest grassroots protest movement in Iran since the 1979 revolution. It emerged in response to the widely contested 2009 presidential election, which was broadly criticised as undemocratic. The regime responded swiftly, suppressing the movement, placing Mousavi and Karroubi under arrest and limiting its organisational capacity. Although the Green Movement is now largely defunct, it paved the way for future domestic resistance. The nationwide protests in 2022, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, centered on women’s rights and broader demands for freedom. These protests not only renewed pressure on the regime but also revealed how remnants of the Green Movement and other grassroots movements could shape the vision for Iran’s future. 

Conclusions 

The conflict with Israel and the possible elimination of Ayatollah Khamenei have pushed Iran toward a pivotal inflection point. Should military action create the conditions for regime change, the IRGC may seek to exploit a potential power vacuum to pursue military rule, and whether it is plausible for the Iranian population to command an alternative is unknown. However there is evidence the Iranian people do want an alternative, in 2022 polling showed 83% of Iranians, aged 20-29, said their closest affiliation was to regime change as opposed to proponents of the Islamic Republic. This figure was also 73% and 74% for the older age categories. However polling data is hard to come by in Iran’s circumstances. While the path - Reza Pahlavi's secular movement or Maryam Rajavi’s resistance - remains unclear, one reality is apparent: any regime change must empower the Iranian people.